USD/JPY FX Signal Dashboard

Crestforge FXUSD/JPY —

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Neutral.

MoF: low — spot under 150 · standard

FLAT · USD/JPY intraday/swing

ENTRY (VWAP pullback)0.000

STOP (prev session low/high)0.000

T1 (gamma / next round)0.000

Partial exit at gamma / intraday barrier — reduce risk into pin risk.

T2 (next key level)0.000

R/R (T1)—

Signal logic (live)

Composite 0/100 blends five blocks (macro 30%, tech 25%, risk 25%, geo 15%, Kalshi 5%).

Size down ~50% ahead of major binaries (Upper House, FOMC).
Widen stops if MoF on High/Critical — model already caps bullish tilt.

Signal weights

30 · 25 · 25 · 15 · 5 spec

macro RatesNeutral —

technicalNeutral —

risk SentimentNeutral —

geopoliticalNeutral —

prediction MarketsNeutral —

MoF intervention (manual)

Desk read on Ministry of Finance / verbal threat. High/Critical hard-cap bullish composite for risk management.

Options gamma (strike)

Key barrier / strike (USD/JPY)

Enter strike to compute pip distance vs spot.

Kalshi

Tier 1 contracts auto-refresh every 30 min from Kalshi public API.

Weekly Kalshi contracts

USD/JPY weekly tickerCustom contract ticker (optional)

Desk override

Bias (−100…+100 or −1…1)Notes

Block 1 · Macro / rates

Weight 30% · FRED / Claude

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Block 2 · Technical

Weight 25% · Yahoo

1H trend

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From spot change%

VWAP position

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RSI 14 (proxy)

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Rough intraday proxy

50 / 200 MA

Live cross pending

Golden/death — wire chart API

MACD

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Bollinger

Mid band (proxy)

Real bands TBD

20/50 cross

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Key high

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Key low

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DXY — · Full TA pipeline in backlog

Block 3 · Risk sentiment

Weight 25% · score 0 — Neutral

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Block 5 · Kalshi (5%)

Markets score 0 · 0 live contracts

No contracts yet. Tier 1 auto-feed will populate on next refresh.

Historical playbook

Illustrative averages from desk studies — not live forecasts.

Scenario	USD/JPY	Avg pip	Gold	Nikkei	VIX	Frequency
BOJ verbal / stealth intervention	Two-way → fade spike	45–120	+0.3–0.6%	−0.5–1.2%	+2–4	8–10 / yr
US CPI hot + bear curve	Bullish USD/JPY	55–140	−0.4%	−0.8%	+3–6	12 / yr
Risk-off liquidity shock	Bearish USD/JPY	70–200	+0.8–1.5%	−2–4%	+8–20	4–6 / yr
China growth / CNH scare	Two-way	40–110	+0.2–0.5%	−1–2%	+4–8	6–8 / yr
FOMC hawkish surprise	Bullish USD/JPY	60–150	−0.5%	−0.5–1%	+2–5	Per meeting
Japan Upper House / MoF rhetoric	Bearish skew / vol	50–130	+0.2–0.4%	−0.5–1.5%	+1–3	Election cycle